tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-126019972011-11-23T16:11:59.027-07:00My love for investing, writing and educating is only superseded by the enjoyment I receive doing them concurrentlyVitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.comBlogger1071100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-39867391470250564482007-01-26T22:33:00.000-07:002007-01-26T22:35:04.177-07:00

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1161748513089814292006-10-24T20:55:00.000-07:002006-10-24T20:56:37.286-07:00

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA October 19, 2006 - The Motley Fool.comOne nice thing about owning US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is that you know you won't blow up when it reports earnings. Unlike other money-center banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C), it won't make dumb loans to a risky country, nor will it be involved in a hedge-fund trade that went bad, nor will it grow

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Walgreens (WAG) comments on Wal-Mart (WMT) "will put them out of business strategy" on the company conference call: For the 291 drugs that Wal-Mart will sell for $4, the average co-pay at Walgreens is $5.30 and for Medicare Part D patients it’s only $3.18. Wal-Mart’s program covers less than 300 generic medications while Walgreens pharmacies’ stock has about 1800 different generics. Over the

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson September 22, 2006 - Financial Times Are low oil prices good for the US economy? Of course. But are they good for retail stocks? That depends on the retailer, and on the mental account that consumer spending is coming from. A “mental account” is not a new form of a cheque or savings account. Rather, the term comes from behavioural finance – a relatively new science that

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA September 21, 2006 - The Motley Fool This morning, Walgreen(NYSE: WAG) and CVS(NYSE: CVS) investors found their stocks chopped up by a bit of news from Wal-Mart(NYSE: WMT). It seems the retail giant will introduce a pilot program next year to sell generic drugs for $4 a month in its Florida stores. This is opposed to the $30 a month that CVS and Walgreen charge.

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By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA I wrote this article on the impact that Wal-Mart's (WMT) brilliant (I think it's a stroke of genius) actions will have on CVS (CVS) and Walgreens (WAG) - which is not much, unless grocery stores will follow WMT's lead, possibly diminishing my "convenience" argument. I failed to mention in the article that at times insurance co-pay for generic drugs will exceed

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by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA September 20th, 2006 - Minyanville.com The Russian government's threat to suspend licenses for two giga-billion projects by TNK-BP, in part owned by BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A), is not uncharacteristic of Russia and its very short term thinking. The Russian government argues that it is based on environmental concerns. Nothing, I repeat nothing, in

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by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA September 18th, 2006 - Minyanville.com After reading my comments on Toll Brothers (TOL), I got the following argument from a reader that I thought was interesting: Toll builds to suit in most of its communities, thus putting itself in a position of carrying low amounts of inventory unlike virtually all other national builders. You don't have to give huge

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158597792922074432006-09-18T09:40:00.000-07:002006-09-18T09:54:36.586-07:00

by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA September 7th, 2006 - Minyanville.com I wrote about Mr. Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) before. But Mr. Toll still keeps amazing me. Reader sent me the following link to Mr. Toll's latest interview. I just love when a person who made hundreds of millions on building houses pleads ignorance. This comment insults everybody’s intelligence: “The current

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158354061691750152006-09-15T13:50:00.000-07:002006-09-18T12:06:48.706-07:00

by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFASep 15, 2006 - Minyanville.com Some interesting feedback... I wrote an article in July 2005 titled “China Speed -- Running Into the Great Wall”, making a case that Chinese economic slowdown will send that great country into a severe recession. Last month I updated that article adding some minor twists. I found an interesting counter point to my article on this

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158263088209725922006-09-14T12:42:00.000-07:002006-09-18T18:13:35.473-07:00

Since there are lot of new visitors to this site, I am reposting some of my older articles that I believe are still relevant today. July 14, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) is hitting multi-year lows and, at 16 times trailing earnings, is attracting value investors that have coveted the stock from afar for years. Some of this latest decline can be traced to

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA September 12, 2006 - The Motley Fool Jos. A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB) has reported its second-quarter numbers, and they aren't good -- they're great! To start with, sales were up 20.8%, and gross and operating margins improved, mainly driven by maturation of the company's fairly new store base. But the Jos. A. Bank story is not about growth -- it always had plenty of

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By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson Denver Post Al Lewis's Blog - August 16th, 2006The Chinese economy reminds me of the movie “Speed”, where Dennis Hopper wires a bus with explosives and sets them to blow if the bus goes slower than 50 miles per hour. The Chinese economy has 1.2 billion unsuspecting people on board. It could all blow if economic growth drops below its current pace of more than 8 percent.

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA August 31st, 2006 - The Motley Fool Investing isn't for the faint of heart. A Foolish investor must be strong enough to change his or her mind when a stock's underlying facts change -- or hang on tight, even in the face of a share-price decline, when they don't. I wrote a very favorable article about Jos. A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB) about a month ago, and I wouldn't

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1156631340940092052006-08-26T15:23:00.000-07:002006-08-26T15:29:04.260-07:00

August 25-26th, 2006 - Minyanville.com Toll's Bias There was an interesting article in the NY Times on the housing market. But what really struck me is Robert Toll’s (CEO of Toll Brothers (TOL)) denial of what is taking place in the housing industry until recently: Here is a sample of his comments from a year ago: “We’ve got the supply, and the market has got the demand. So it’s a match made in

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Minyanville - August 16th, 2006I'll pose these questions for readers:Let's say the scenario that I described in this article plays out, the Chinese economy slows down, its massive operational and financial leverages create deflationary pressure on the companies forcing them to lower prices in an attempt to stimulate sales growth, starting a price war which would in turn lead to even lower

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1155764367790918662006-08-16T14:32:00.000-07:002006-09-19T10:47:36.316-07:00

I wrote these short comments on Minyanville.com between August 14-16. It's what good managers do to win ball games At MIM2 (Minyanville in the Mountains 2) Jeff Macke and I discussed how being a public company impacts management's decisions, where management may do things that are not necessarily good for the long run of the business to please the short-term, result hungry Wall Street. This

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August 11, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA As I began analyzing amusement-park operator Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), it reminded me of a computer game that I used to play called Rollercoaster Tycoon, because I felt like I was on a roller coaster when debating whether to open a position in this company. Cedar Fair is known as a pure-play, profitable, well-managed company that has

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August 4th, 2006 - Financial Times By Vitaliy Katsenelson Published: August 4 2006 19:42 Last updated: August 4 2006 19:42 Love was in the air, birds were singing, price/earnings ratios were growing and the stock prices of large-cap, bellwether companies such as Microsoft, Wal-Mart and Johnson & Johnson were rising as if dotcom had become their middle name. Investors could not get enough of

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1154799639032259632006-08-05T10:38:00.000-07:002006-09-19T09:18:06.776-07:00

August 3th, 2006 - Minyanville.com Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) is up close to 6% after reporting truly unbelievable sales numbers for July: same store sales were up 16% and total sales were up 28%. July's performance has validated my view on the stock that you are about to read. What does it really mean “being contrarian?” Doing the opposite of what everybody else is doing,

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1153504100989281332006-07-21T10:48:00.000-07:002006-07-21T10:48:21.296-07:00

July 14, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) is hitting multi-year lows and, at 16 times trailing earnings, is attracting value investors that have coveted the stock from afar for years. Some of this latest decline can be traced to the company's recent downward revision of earnings estimates. And this is precisely the noise that a contrarian investor looks to

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1151885668204640542006-07-02T17:14:00.000-07:002006-07-02T17:17:44.003-07:00

Friday June 30, 1:14 pm ET By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Every trade has a buyer and seller taking opposite sides. They often have different risk tolerances, time horizons, and beliefs about the direction of a stock. And before purchasing any stock, investors should build a good bull case that refutes the bear case. In that spirit, I'll spend the next few paragraphs making both a bullish and a

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One of the sites I contribute to, minyanville.com, offers great investment analysis and they have just launched their New and Improved Buzz and Banter, an exclusive resource for investors. It supplies the most current market insight and innovative idea generation to your desktop, with some useful new features. Recently they have created a blog, minyanville.blogspot.com, providing some of the best

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Don’t be downbeat about Wal-Mart May 12 2006 - Financial Times The greatest investment opportunities are seeded not by warm sunshine but by chilling rain. It has been freezing and pouring in Wal-Mart’s neck of the woods. To say Wal-Mart is not loved is a serious understatement. It has been convicted and fined $172m for refusing employees in California rightful overtime breaks, it has been

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1147406200637048422006-05-11T20:56:00.000-07:002006-05-11T20:56:41.276-07:00

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA May 5, 2006 - The Motley Fool A political risk is present in shares of any government-regulated company, but it came to fruition for Telecom New Zealand (NYSE: NZT) when the New Zealand government unbundled the local loop. Unbundling a local loop is a fancy phrase for requiring an incumbent telecom provider to open its networks to competition at cost. But maybe, just

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1145548511004817842006-04-20T08:55:00.000-07:002006-04-20T08:55:11.076-07:00

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA April 11, 2006 - The Motley Fool Nokia (NYSE: NOK) announced that its average selling price (ASP) has increased in the first quarter from a projected 98 euros to 103 euros. This is great news for the company. Over the last several quarters, Nokia has demonstrated very high revenue growth, but its margins have taken a hit as lower-priced introductory cell phones in

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA April 6, 2006 - The Motley Fool The value guy in me always awakens when I see a stock scratching at multi-year lows, and Westwood One (NYSE: WON) piqued my interest a couple weeks ago. It declined from more than $30 two years ago to around $11 today, trading at about 11 times 2006 earnings. That's cheap -- but is it cheap enough? At first, the company seemed very

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1143762587109189022006-03-30T16:49:00.000-07:002006-03-30T16:49:47.660-07:00

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA March 20th, 2006 - The Motley Fool On the surface, chicken stocks like Sanderson Farms(Nasdaq: SAFM), Gold Kist(Nasdaq: GKIS), and Pilgrim's Pride(NYSE: PPC) are a value manager's dream. Most of them are not very leveraged, they generate a decent return on capital, and best of all, they trade at single-digit P/E based on last year's earnings. So, are chicken stocks

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1143242200321142922006-03-24T16:13:00.000-07:002006-03-24T16:16:41.073-07:00

February 1, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Lloyds TSB (NYSE: LYG) is up more than 5% at Wednesday's open, on the speculation that it will be bought out by Spanish bank BBVA. It's hard to tell whether this speculation has any substance, since rumors of a Lloyds takeover surface every couple months or so. However, Lloyds is a prime candidate for acquisition for several

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February 23rd, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA After reading Jeremy Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run, one gets a strong sense of security about investing in the stock market. Over long periods, the market overcame catastrophes like a global influenza pandemic, the Great Depression, the Cold War, two Gulf wars, two world wars, terrorist attacks, natural

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March 1st, 2006 - The Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA "Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not functioning properly." -- Jeremy Grantham Many investors (

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFAFebruary 15, 2005 – Motley Fool A few nights ago I was awakened by my two and a half year old son Jonah at two o'clock in the morning. He was whimpering and crying out for us to pick him up and bring him into our bed. We succumbed. For the next couple of hours my dear wife and I would receive the occasional kick in the stomach, or elbow to our eyes, ears, and other

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February 10, 2006 - Motley FoolBy Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFAInvesting in the stock market is a never-ending learning experience. That's what makes it so appealing and intellectually stimulating. And I inadvertently had one of those live-and-learn experiences just the other day. In my piece on Lloyds TSB(NYSE: LYG), I wrote that banks usually trade at lower price-to-earnings ratios to the market

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1138737380908066002006-01-31T10:36:00.000-07:002006-01-31T12:56:23.630-07:00

December 20th, 2006 - Motley Fool In the late 1980's and early 1990's, the world witnessed a bubble economy in Japan. Soon after, we experienced the tech bubble here in the U.S. Now people are wondering if there is a real estate bubble. I hate to be the bearer of more bad news on the bubble front, but there's yet another one on the horizon. The ever-growing Chinese market, a topic which

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1136392537081726762006-01-04T09:35:00.000-07:002006-01-04T09:35:55.720-07:00

January 4th, 2005 - Financial Times Last year's rendezvous of three witches (Rita, Katrina and Wilma) on the Gulf coast caused destruction and sucked out capital from the property and casualty insurance industry. The bad news is: insurance companies lost a lot of money. But the good news is: insurance companies lost a lot of money. Thus we are likely facing a new "hard" market, of increasing

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1135914323884213542005-12-29T20:45:00.000-07:002005-12-29T20:46:20.946-07:00

December 27, 2005 - Minyanville.com Vitaliy, Can you believe this? I mean, really, what is with these people working at Wal-Mart (WMT)? If they wanted to have a lunch break, they should have gone to college (like you and I), don't you think? The next thing you know they'll want to be paid for overtime. Oh, I forgot Wal-Mart has already been busted for that one. In any event, these ungrateful,

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1135393499546454072005-12-23T20:01:00.000-07:002005-12-23T20:04:59.943-07:00

December 21, 2005 - Motley Fool By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA If you need words to describe National Grid (NYSE: NGG), "stable," "predictable," and "unexciting" spring to mind. Reading its financials stirs so little excitement that if you can't sleep, you might want to leave a copy of its 20-F (a 10-K equivalent filed by ADRs) on the nightstand. In the competition for boredom, in fact, National

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1134788624584863532005-12-16T20:00:00.000-07:002005-12-16T20:03:44.933-07:00

December 13, 2005 - Motley Fool Lloyds TSB's (NYSE: LYG) recent announcement that it experienced slower growth in consumer lending and higher defaults in its consumer segment did not come as a surprise, and its stock actually went up on the news. One reason for that is that the company says its dividend will not suffer, even despite the uneasy economic situation in the United Kingdom. Consumer

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1134173476002210102005-12-09T17:07:00.000-07:002005-12-09T17:11:16.096-07:00

December 9, 2005 - Minyanville.com Symantec (SYMC) looks somewhat alluring on the surface: it is trading at 18 times next year’s earnings. It looks even more appealing if you factor in a $4 billion cash pile, which accounts roughly for 20% of the company’s market capitalization. However, a look at company stock options expense kills the appetite for the stock, as stock options wipe out 20% of

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1134172755209635282005-12-09T16:48:00.000-07:002005-12-09T16:59:15.570-07:00

December 9, 2005 - Minyanville.com Vitaliy, With regard to your Wal-Mart (WMT) piece. You should be ashamed of yourself. The idea of exploiting those less fortunate is not the type of thing I have come to expect out of the Minyanville. I would think your typical long term Wal-Mart employee fits the bill of those that haven't made the cut. Happy Holidays, Michael Michael, This is a very

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1133310858718702972005-11-29T17:28:00.000-07:002005-11-29T17:34:19.176-07:00

October 28, 2005 - Minyanville Retail swell? This weekend when I heard about the 22% increase in shopping activity over last year, I could not help but wonder - have I seen this movie before? After all, auto companies tried to stimulate their demand by cutting prices, and we know how that story ended. It seems what attracted consumers to the stores were the great discounts, not the increase in

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1133280836690137902005-11-29T09:10:00.000-07:002005-11-29T09:14:08.543-07:00

November 29th 2005 - Financial Times This article was published Financial Times on page 14. Ironically I originally wrote this article about six months ago, but it was pushed back by my other pieces. It was a product of my research on Gannett (GCI), which we decided not to buy--the stock has declined almost 30% since. Google’s (GOOG) incredible top-line growth which is approaching GCI’s very

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1132355801161763552005-11-18T16:08:00.000-07:002005-11-18T16:16:41.943-07:00

November 17-18, 2005 - Minyanville.com Wal-Mart's Double Standard I talked to two friends of mine, both are money managers. Their firms will not buy Wal-Mart (WMT) because they’re afraid clients will be upset with them. One of the firms is located in Boulder – so that unwillingness to own WMT makes sense, as Boulder is a socialistic Californian city disguised by the Rocky Mountains (did I just

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1131837895230652482005-11-10T16:16:00.000-07:002005-11-12T16:24:55.546-07:00

Minyanville.com - October 28, 2005 The Anatomy of Sell Buying stocks is easy, selling them less so. Therefore, in light of the Cendant (CD) news today, I thought it might be helpful to briefly look at the reasons we sold Cendant stock awhile back. Perhaps this short exercise can help illustrate the fundamental discipline involved in making sell decisions.We sold Cendant stock awhile back for

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1131574802431725662005-11-09T15:19:00.000-07:002005-11-09T15:22:51.216-07:00

October 11, 2005 - Minyanville.com This mailbag is in response to my Nov. 4 article on Buybacks and Dividends. Vitaliy, Good stuff as always!... A minor point... near the end you say you object to a company leveraging its balance sheet to do buybacks. But technically, isn't paying out cash for a buyback changing (negatively) the balance sheet even if no borrowing is involved? In other

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1131490808230438272005-11-08T15:53:00.000-07:002005-11-08T16:22:31.483-07:00

October 3-7 2005 - Minyanville.comAround the earnings block... Becton Dickenson (BDX) is another darling of mine that reported 3rd quarter numbers today. Revenues grew 8% (excluding currency benefit) and performance was very solid across all segments - a sign of business quality. BDX's business lends itself to fairly good operational leverage, which was apparent in this quarter's performance as

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1131144161999123542005-11-04T15:38:00.000-07:002005-11-04T15:42:42.016-07:00

November 4, 2005 - Minyanville.com /Bloomberg Before the 1982-1998 bull market, dividends accounted for a very large portion of stock market returns. In fact, in the 1966-1982 bear market, they were the returns investors received while watching P/E compress under the market. On a theoretical level, dividends are just a transfer from a company’s corporate account (an account partly owned by a

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1130536823561062132005-10-28T14:55:00.000-07:002005-10-28T15:00:23.740-07:00

October 21-28, 2005 - Minyanville.com This Quarter's Theme: Consumer Weakening I am getting the feeling that this holiday season is going to be ugly, or at least disappointing. Listening to earnings calls of companies I follow (don't necessarily own their stock) I keep hearing this "consumer weakening" justification to their poor results. Arguably, their management may be hiding their poor

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1130538021483192372005-10-27T15:13:00.000-07:002005-10-28T15:20:21.666-07:00

Vitaliy Very interesting article on Wal Mart (WMT). Here's my two cents. Capitalism, without a social context, is a pretty simple equation. From this perspective, go Wal Mart! On the other hand, people need to look at the social externalities of Wal-Mart's economic model...the goods are cheaper if you don't consider that their existence makes their typical customer less wealthy, that their

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1130537496819715902005-10-26T15:11:00.000-07:002005-10-28T15:11:56.910-07:00

October 26, 2005 - Minyanville.com I got two words for that: Who cares? Care about them? Why? They didn't care about you. They sucked you dry. You have no responsibility to them. For the last ten years this company bled your money. Did this community ever say, 'We know times are tough? We'll lower taxes, reduce water and sewer.' Check it out: You're paying twice what you did ten years ago. And

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1129943289496691762005-10-20T18:00:00.000-07:002005-10-21T18:08:09.506-07:00

October 20th 2005 - Minyanville.com Thoughts on Abbott Lab's 3rd Quarter Results I was more than satisfied with Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 3rd quarter performance. Its margins were depressed in the quarter as for several reasons: It took several charges (some of which should actually benefit the company in the future); sales of Mobic, a low margin drug, were up 146% and R&D was up 15% (ahead of

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1129943970481150172005-10-19T18:15:00.000-07:002005-10-21T18:19:30.486-07:00

October 19th 2005 - Minyanville.com In the first quarter of 2005 I put USB stock on double secret probation. After the second quarter I took it off probation. This quarter's performance earns USB a get-out-of-jail-free card. As I've mentioned previously I have a checklist of things I look for in a bank. Specifically, growing assets – a source of loans; growing checking accounts – a source of

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1129417116274691312005-10-12T15:53:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:41:02.200-07:00

October 12, 2005 - Minyanville I know very little about baseball. Football (a sport that is insulted in this country as soccer), hockey and chess (a spectator sport in Russia) are the national sports in Russia. This is a true story: about thirteen years ago I went to my first baseball game. I was patiently waiting for the game to start for a long time, doing the baseball thing - eating hotdogs

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1129085108841418412005-10-11T19:42:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:02:42.910-07:00

October 11 2005 - Financial Times Lloyds? Lloyds TSB? Is that a property and casualty insurance company?" "No, a British bank." "Oh . . . " I'd imagine this is the start of a typical conversation between Lloyds TSB's management team and US investors, [at the time feeling like Yogi Berra when he said, “I wish I had an answer to that because I'm tired of answering that question.”] Lloyds TSB is the

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1128648581064597032005-10-06T18:18:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:03:03.513-07:00

Why I don't Follow Russia Hi Vitaliy, I'm just curious as to why you don't follow Russian market? Is this a choice (it is for me, and I missed the best stock market in the world for the last 6 years), or just "so happened"? Thanks, Alex MA- There are several reasons why I don’t follow the Russian market: I was educated in the United States and though I do speak and read Russian, my Russian

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1128136514832823192005-09-30T20:12:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:03:33.526-07:00

September 29, 2005 - Minyanville.com Putin's time ends in 2008. Will Russia's begin? I don't follow Russian markets and recently I discovered that I don’t understand the psyche of Russian people (that discovery was made after talking to my high school buddies that still reside in Russia and my capitalistic dialect is not understood well there). I don’t even have a decent inventory of hard liquor

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1127962032767802822005-09-28T19:35:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:03:56.813-07:00

I have a had a very interesting discussion with David Miller, a fellow contributor to Minyanville.com, on Federal government’s role in hurricane Katrina. David publishes Biotech Monthly and knows biotech industry inside and out. I wrote the following: I think the Federal government is to blame in part for the level of destruction caused by the hurricane. This is not a political statement but

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1127961312410162042005-09-28T19:30:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:14:52.263-07:00

Our approach to risk management shows through our research process. To finish first, first you must finish. Thus looking down (for risk) often is more important than looking up (for return). In a long only portfolio there are three interrelated pillars to risk management: diversification, stock selection, and valuation. Diversification Diversification – is the only free lunch an investor will

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1126130819216089772005-09-07T14:56:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:16:05.380-07:00

I played around with Merck's financials this morning. It appears that MRK will be able to keep paying the dividend despite major blockbuster expirations (Zocor and Fosomax) without dipping substantially into its $13 billion war chest. Here is my back of the envelope analysis (excel spreadsheet). Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA This article is written for educational purposes only. It is not

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1126413314629886522005-08-24T21:34:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:04:50.513-07:00

August 24, 2005 - Minyanville.com I wrote this article after Minyans in the Mountains conference that took place in sunny Ojai. I was one of the panelists on fundamental panel where I was in the great company of Herb Greenberg, Fil Zucchi and Jeff Macke. JeffMacke© and I usually agree on things. (Though he recently mentioned that my four-year-old son will never meet his two and half old daughter

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1123469499681959232005-08-08T19:45:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:05:31.476-07:00

Financial Times - August 8, 2005 Nokia is a perfect showcase for contrarian value investing. It is easy not to like Nokia stock, especially for US investors, as Nokia has not come up with a decent cell phone in the US for a while. Motorola has risen from the dead and offers a great portfolio. In addition, the latest quarter did little to provide comfort as margins in the mobile phone segment

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1122261152671623382005-07-25T20:08:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:10:32.693-07:00

July 25, 2005 - Financial Times The stocks of American local telephone companies are down substantially from their heyday of the late 1990s and they have been facing problems on many fronts, including fierce competition from cable operators. But not all phone companies are created equal. In the middle of the South Pacific, Telecom Corp of New Zealand, or NZT, competes in a quite different

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1132004937797880362005-07-22T13:39:00.000-07:002005-11-14T14:48:58.256-07:00

July 22, 2005 - Minyanville.com The light at the end of the tunnel appears very bright for banking stocks as aging baby boomers will likely demand more of their products and services as they get deeper into the retirement stage of their lives. However, in the meantime the light is flickering somewhat as banks are going through some tough times with net interest margins under pressure due to the

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1122409600458888472005-07-18T13:18:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:11:28.333-07:00

July 18, 2005 - Minyanville.com A couple of days ago headlines read, "Dutch company VNU, Inc (VNUVY) announced they would buy IMS Health (RX) for $6.9 billion” (a modest 15% premium). However, in its press release, RX announced that it is merging with VNU. Did VNU buy RX or was it a merger? According to RX, VNU did not approach RX and the ‘merger’ was a byproduct of mutual affection of one

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1121558265045825182005-07-13T16:54:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:06:20.276-07:00

July 13, 2005 - Minyanville.com / MarketWatch Commentary: Weakness driven by shortsightedness DENVER (MarketWatch) -- Abbott Labs got a less than happy round of applause Wednesday from the market even as it beat the consensus earnings number by a penny. The top line growth, however, was more than impressive as sales grew 15.2% in constant currency; bottom line growth mostly followed the sales

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1120072813037539852005-06-29T12:18:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:12:11.633-07:00

June 22, 2005 - Minyanville.com / Bloomberg According to the Economist, the Chinese economy grew 9.4% in the first quarter in 2005 with industrial production being up an astounding 16%. Surprisingly most of that growth was real, as inflation was only 1.8%. It is impossible to say how accurate these numbers are, since they are put out by a very political and secretive entity – the Chinese

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1116968006020974592005-05-24T13:50:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:13:24.386-07:00

May 24 2005 - Financial Times In the last century, every prolonged bull market, which ran about 16 years, was followed by a similar length bear market. I believe this is not a random pattern. It takes a long time for an emotional cycle to reach its climax, and it takes a similar time to reverse that cycle and drive valuations to the other extreme. In a bull market rising prices intensify

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1116542621575172602005-05-10T15:41:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:26:28.326-07:00

May 12, 2005 - Minyaville.com Excellent article on General Motors (GM) in the May 9th edition of Business Week. Here are some important points and my thoughts: GM is saddled with $1,600 of legacy costs per vehicle - retiree health and pension benefit costs.Because of 15 year old union agreements, GM must run plants at 80% capacity, whether it makes money or not. (I believe this is another

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1116542390862808512005-05-10T15:25:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:24:44.383-07:00

May 10, 2005 - Minyanville.com The Good:The company increased the dividend 22% to $0.11 - resulting in a yield of 2.1%. CD will be buying close to 4% of its shares and it is all coming from free cash flows (not from leveraging the balance sheet). CD expects to continue doing that well into 2006. From the conference call: management believes there is a disconnect between improving fundamentals

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1118268254097935282005-04-30T14:49:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:28:11.673-07:00

April 30, 2005 - Minyanville.com This is what I want to see from a bank in our portfolios: growing assets – a source of loans, growing checking accounts – a source of free (cheap) funds, growth of fees – provides stable income, which is not sensitive to interest rate volatility. In addition I would like to see expenses as a percent of revenues (efficiency ratio) constantly declining – gratitude

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115699935513709942005-04-29T21:30:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:25:08.013-07:00

April 29, 2005 - MinyanvilleAs “the Ugly” and “the Bad” dominated the performance for Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) this quarter, at least on the surface, and as such we will address them first: The Ugly: Only 4% of the 12% revenue growth was organic, the rest came from acquisitions.In the brokerage segment, organic revenue growth was only 1%. Though the organic growth looks awful, it is largely

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115091805137088922005-04-26T20:40:00.000-07:002005-05-03T06:00:50.566-07:00

April 26 2005 - Financial TimesFor a company to find a place in our clients’ port­folios it has to have three crucial ingredients: growth, quality and value. Not compromising, and thus avoiding marginal investments, is a true test of discipline – I would opt to hold cash over a marginal stock any time. As with dating, a marginal stock may prevent an investor marrying a truly good stock when it

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1116541456741555392005-04-26T15:10:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:27:30.116-07:00

March 26, 2005 - Minyanville.com The Good: Sales were up 6% (excluding sales from Neenah paper which was spun off recently), on constant currency sales that were up 3%. Days sales outstanding is down to 2 days due to an investment in SAP software – that will help cash flows.KMB returned back $500 mm to shareholders: $301 through share buy- back, and $200 in the form of dividends. In addition,

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115698542782312882005-04-14T21:15:00.000-07:002005-05-09T21:41:51.896-07:00

April 14, 2004 - Minyanville Blockbuster drugs have changed the risk profile of many pharmaceutical companies. But then again not all pharmaceutical companies are created equal. The only pharmaceutical company that we hold company wide is Abbott Labs (ABT). It has all the characteristics of the major pharmaceutical company: very strong balance sheet, great cash flows, nice fat profit margins and

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115092339572874822005-04-11T20:49:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:52:19.576-07:00

April 11 2005 - Financial Times Most of the latest accounting scandals have taken place with successful and highly regarded companies, not the John Does of the corporate world, but the icons of corporate America. Is that a coincidence? Not at all. We live in a finite world where infinite supernormal growth of earnings is not possible, at some point even the most successful company will reach a

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115093310297889752005-04-02T21:54:00.000-07:002005-05-02T21:08:30.303-07:00

April 2, 2005 - Minyanville.com Editor's Note: With this article Minyanville is proud to welcome Vitaliy Katsenelson to the 'Ville. Mr. Katsenelson holds a CFA and has worked in the asset management industry since 1995. He is currently vice president and portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates Inc., a private portfolio management firm based in Denver, where he manages

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115091575599246562005-03-28T21:33:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:39:35.603-07:00

March 28 2005 - Financial Times In the good old days, pharmaceutical companies traded at a significant premium to the market, which was justified by predictable earnings growth, bulletproof balance sheets, Microsoft-monopoly-like profit margins and a return on investment that was the envy of corporate America. Political and drug expiration risks were the only factors that instilled some sense

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115091106386619612005-01-28T21:26:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:31:46.390-07:00

January 28, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightI'm satisfied with CA's performance in the latest quarter; plus, its organic growth numbers look good. I love companies with recurring revenues -- they have less operational volatility and usually have to do less to grow. CA has an attractive valuation, an improved corporate and financial profile -- and, likely, a brighter future.I received several

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115157268740628202004-12-15T15:51:00.000-07:002005-05-03T14:54:28.743-07:00

December 12, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightI propose all executives convicted of a white-collar crime serve their time at Alcatraz. Serving six months to a year would make an honest person out of even the most crooked offender. A couple days ago, I briefly visited San Francisco (I left my heart there). I had several hours of free time to kill, so like any self-respecting tourist, I went on

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115090716002098132004-12-02T21:22:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:25:16.003-07:00

December 2, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight As in the 2000 U.S. election, the Supreme Court, not tanks and armies, is deciding the legitimacy of the election. Peaceful demonstrations and protests are actually a sign of a democracy. I see why Americans (and Europeans) are unhappy about Putin's involvement, but it's a game everyone plays. I would like to politely disagree with Jeff Matthews

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1117119668713012592004-12-02T08:55:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:29:02.080-07:00

December 2, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightA turnaround seems unlikely, as the numbers are even worse than they appear on the surface.It feels like there is a disconnect between management, the stock market, analysts that were on the call and reality.I'm getting tired of hearing about the improvements management boasts about qtr. after qtr. and not seeing results. Last quarter I truly hoped

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115089818005137142004-11-10T21:07:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:13:10.350-07:00

November 10, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight Consumers have carried the U.S. economy on their backs for a long time, but lately they are showing signs of fatigue. Consumers' response to higher food prices shows how frail they really are. Food distributor Sysco (SYY), which reported 5.9% food inflation in the latest quarter, has passed commodity price increases on to restaurants. But when

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115094567172735412004-11-07T22:20:00.000-07:002005-05-02T21:29:27.183-07:00

November 7, 2004 - RealMoney.comValues are a very rare occurrence in this market unless an investor is willing to go down on the quality curve. In the quest for value, we seek gems that have collected the dust of confusion and misunderstanding. A Dusty Gem IMS Health (IMS) is one such gem. On the surface, its financials look very rocky. Its sales and net income have not grown much over the years

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1125287216959519242004-11-05T21:42:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:30:08.976-07:00

November 5, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightPredictability of revenue and earnings along with a likely dividend increase make BDX an appealing investment.It is hard not to be impressed with Becton, Dickinson (BDX) and its management. The company is producing consistent organic growth in both the top line and bottom line through innovation. It has invented a safety needle category. It

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115089549451358742004-10-27T20:01:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:05:49.453-07:00

October 27, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightPremium consumer brands no longer guarantee pricing power.Sara Lee (SLE) reported earnings at the higher end of estimates, producing 44 cents per share. However, these results include 15 cents received from the sale of its European cut-tobacco business. Sales grew 4% during the quarter, with net income lagging a tad behind, growing 3%. The sour

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1125429874284783172004-10-26T12:20:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:33:57.890-07:00

October 26, 2004 - TheStreet.com: StreetInsightFHN is taking market share in the mortgage business from defunct small players. Management is not managing the business for the short-term; its building a strong, viable franchise for the long term. The company was able to maintain flat earnings year-over-year despite huge exposure to the refi market.I had a very interesting conversation with a

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115086581902696132004-10-22T19:11:00.000-07:002005-05-03T05:51:44.790-07:00

October 22, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight ... and I don't want to be around when payment is due. Paying $500 million for Howard Stern only works if Stern generates 40 years worth of revenue. And consumer tastes do change, even for vice. I thought I had seen the epitome of stupid management decisions during the dot-com bubble when ludicrous sums of money were thrown at pie-in-the-sky ideas

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1128352848003286732004-10-14T08:16:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:36:01.716-07:00

October 14th 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight If an investor was looking for a catalyst to short GM, this is probably a good starting point. Timing is essential because GM pays a 4.8% dividend, though I believe downside in this stock is significant.Editor's Note: Vitaliy Katsenelson described the perfect storm of rising interest rates, incentives and declining profit margins heading for

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115085272899847702004-10-06T18:50:00.000-07:002005-05-02T18:54:32.903-07:00

October 6, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightRising interest rates, incentives, and declining profit margins are swirling around the automakers. The perfect storm is brewing on the horizon for the automotive industry and, unfortunately, the industry will be unable to dodge it. It will have dire consequences on this already over-leveraged, mismanaged and over-unionized industry. So far, the

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115084959272207192004-09-30T18:46:00.000-07:002005-05-02T18:49:19.276-07:00

September 30, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightVeritas looked like a bargain, but when I adjust my cash-flow model for stock option expense, it's not cheap at all.If the expense was disclosed on the income statement, mgt. wouldn't give out stock options like turkeys on Thanksgiving.My frustration with stock options has officially reached a 52-week high. We mostly shy away from tech in our

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115082088334872852004-09-28T17:49:00.000-07:002005-05-02T18:01:28.346-07:00

September 28, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightChannel stuffing by pharmaceutical companies had handicapped the drug distribution industry.Drug distributors are pushing distribution costs back to pharmaceutical companies in a "fee-for-service" arrangement.A wait-and-see approach is best when investing in drug distributors, the situation may get worse before it gets better.The drug distribution

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115086241164425102004-09-23T19:07:00.000-07:002005-05-02T19:10:41.166-07:00

September 23, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightThe premium valuation multiple that the healthcare industry commanded in the past is in the past.Last week I was teaching a Practical Equity Analysis class and describing the concept of channel stuffing to my students. As an example, I brought up the large pharmaceutical and drug distributors industries. After describing what happened in the

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115081283325328172004-09-09T17:41:00.000-07:002005-05-02T17:48:03.330-07:00

September 9, 2005 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight September 17, 2005 - Realmoney.com Recent clinical studies on Vioxx and Zocor do not bode well for the stock. A negative FDA ruling and/or tight restrictions from insurance companies would hurt sales dramatically. A 30% decline in sales could result in 45-65% lower earnings, according to my firm's estimates.Recent news on Merck (MRK:NYSE) made

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115090305964124922004-09-02T20:14:00.000-07:002005-05-02T20:18:25.966-07:00

September 5, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight Predictability of revenue and earnings along with a likely dividend increase make BDX an appealing investment.It is hard not to be impressed with Becton, Dickinson (BDX) and its management. The company is producing consistent organic growth in both the top line and bottom line through innovation. It has invented a safety needle category. It

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115076204730728982004-08-28T16:20:00.000-07:002005-05-02T18:05:39.786-07:00

August 28, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight Consensus oil price forecasts are too aggressive, and are not sustainable in the long run. The usual bullish argument sounds among the lines: Production capacity is maxed out (Saudis are pumping all the oil they can, Russia is a mess), demand in China, India, and South Korea is growing very fast -- far outpacing the supply available. As compelling

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115075294498378572004-08-28T16:06:00.000-07:002005-05-02T16:08:14.500-07:00

August 28, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight Since I am the only contributor on the Street Insight that was born in Russia. I feel that I need to explain the Russian psyche that will shed some light on investing in Russia. Russian people like the idea of democracy, they love the idea of being able to complain about their difficult life in public, but that is as far as it goes. Without

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115074369007655542004-08-27T15:39:00.000-07:002005-05-02T16:05:07.400-07:00

August 25, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight The real problem for Motorola will come when the growth rate of the cell phone industry slows down or stalls. Over the weekend, I was analyzing Nokia (NOK:NYSE) and while I have not reached a conclusion on the stock, one issue was evident to me: management has done a terrific job positioning Nokia to compete against Motorola (MOT:NYSE). Nokia has

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1115076488931866402004-08-09T16:24:00.000-07:002005-05-02T18:07:20.916-07:00

September 9th, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street InsightI canceled my TiVo (TIVO:Nasdaq) subscription last week; the unit went back to Costco (COST:Nasdaq). Costco has a generous return policy. If you are dissatisfied with a product (unless it is a computer), you can return it to any Costco store at any time after the purchase. I purchased the TiVo unit about five months ago. It worked fine with my

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1119624058682520042004-08-08T07:38:00.000-07:002005-10-15T16:32:18.170-07:00

August 8, 2004 - TheStreet.com: Street Insight In my mind there are two issues that are of concern. First, interruption of much-needed oil flow from Russia (a very valid and important question since Yukos is responsible for 20% of Russian's oil production). Second, the question in my mind that is even more important, is the impact of the Yukos scandal on the future investments in Russia. It is

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0