tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-126019972024-03-07T22:57:34.136-07:00Vitaliy's Contrarian EdgeMy love for investing, writing and educating is only superseded by the enjoyment I receive doing them concurrentlyVitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.comBlogger107125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-39867391470250564482007-01-26T22:33:00.000-07:002007-01-26T22:35:04.177-07:00Blog Moved ContrarianEdge.comVitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1161748513089814292006-10-24T20:55:00.000-07:002006-10-24T20:56:37.286-07:00US Bancorp’s Glass Is Half FullBy Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
October 19, 2006 - The Motley Fool.comOne nice thing about owning US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is that you know you won't blow up when it reports earnings. Unlike other money-center banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C), it won't make dumb loans to a risky country, nor will it be involved in a hedge-fund trade that went bad, nor will it grow Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1159245553445132022006-09-25T21:36:00.000-07:002006-09-25T21:41:41.293-07:00Need I say more?Walgreens (WAG) comments on Wal-Mart (WMT) "will put them out of business strategy" on the company conference call:
For the 291 drugs that Wal-Mart will sell for $4, the average co-pay at Walgreens is $5.30 and for Medicare Part D patients it’s only $3.18. Wal-Mart’s program covers less than 300 generic medications while Walgreens pharmacies’ stock has about 1800 different generics. Over the Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1159231990500024322006-09-25T17:46:00.000-07:002006-09-25T17:53:10.986-07:00Vitaliy Katsenelson : Oil, diapers and US economyBy Vitaliy Katsenelson
September 22, 2006 - Financial Times
Are low oil prices good for the US economy? Of course. But are they good for retail stocks? That depends on the retailer, and on the mental account that consumer spending is coming from.
A “mental account” is not a new form of a cheque or savings account. Rather, the term comes from behavioural finance – a relatively new science that Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1159152805347345242006-09-24T19:48:00.000-07:002006-09-24T20:11:36.366-07:00Don't Hit the Panic Button Just YetBy Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
September 21, 2006 - The Motley Fool
This morning, Walgreen(NYSE: WAG) and CVS(NYSE: CVS) investors found their stocks chopped up by a bit of news from Wal-Mart(NYSE: WMT). It seems the retail giant will introduce a pilot program next year to sell generic drugs for $4 a month in its Florida stores. This is opposed to the $30 a month that CVS and Walgreen charge. Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158972890012909582006-09-22T17:54:00.000-07:002006-09-22T18:02:26.120-07:00Brilliant!By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
I wrote this article on the impact that Wal-Mart's (WMT) brilliant (I think it's a stroke of genius) actions will have on CVS (CVS) and Walgreens (WAG) - which is not much, unless grocery stores will follow WMT's lead, possibly diminishing my "convenience" argument.
I failed to mention in the article that at times insurance co-pay for generic drugs will exceed $Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158774560841211732006-09-20T10:44:00.000-07:002006-09-20T10:49:21.473-07:00Russian Thieveryby Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
September 20th, 2006 - Minyanville.com
The Russian government's threat to suspend licenses for two giga-billion projects by TNK-BP, in part owned by BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A), is not uncharacteristic of Russia and its very short term thinking. The Russian government argues that it is based on environmental concerns. Nothing, I repeat nothing, in Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158605177567113472006-09-18T11:42:00.000-07:002006-09-18T12:01:17.780-07:00Reaction to Tollby Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
September 18th, 2006 - Minyanville.com
After reading my comments on Toll Brothers (TOL), I got the following argument from a reader that I thought was interesting:
Toll builds to suit in most of its communities, thus putting itself in a
position of carrying low amounts of inventory unlike virtually all other
national builders. You don't have to give huge Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158597792922074432006-09-18T09:40:00.000-07:002006-09-18T09:54:36.586-07:00Mr. Toll at "It" Againby Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
September 7th, 2006 - Minyanville.com
I wrote about Mr. Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) before. But Mr. Toll still keeps amazing me. Reader sent me the following link to Mr. Toll's latest interview.
I just love when a person who made hundreds of millions on building houses pleads ignorance. This comment insults everybody’s intelligence: “The current Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158354061691750152006-09-15T13:50:00.000-07:002006-09-18T12:06:48.706-07:00China Reduxby Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFASep 15, 2006 - Minyanville.com
Some interesting feedback...
I wrote an article in July 2005 titled “China Speed -- Running Into the Great Wall”, making a case that Chinese economic slowdown will send that great country into a severe recession. Last month I updated that article adding some minor twists. I found an interesting counter point to my article on this Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158263088209725922006-09-14T12:42:00.000-07:002006-09-18T18:13:35.473-07:00The Best of: Dell, Not Yet?Since there are lot of new visitors to this site, I am reposting some of my older articles that I believe are still relevant today. July 14, 2006 - The Motley Fool
By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) is hitting multi-year lows and, at 16 times trailing earnings, is attracting value investors that have coveted the stock from afar for years. Some of this latest decline can be traced toVitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1158262916644940102006-09-14T12:36:00.000-07:002006-09-29T18:50:21.136-07:00Jos. A. Bank: You Betcha!By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
September 12, 2006 - The Motley Fool
Jos. A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB) has reported its second-quarter numbers, and they aren't good -- they're great!
To start with, sales were up 20.8%, and gross and operating margins improved, mainly driven by maturation of the company's fairly new store base. But the Jos. A. Bank story is not about growth -- it always had plenty of Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1157422513716605282006-09-04T18:59:00.000-07:002006-09-04T19:16:20.420-07:00China stuck in overdriveBy Vitaliy N. Katsenelson Denver Post Al Lewis's Blog - August 16th, 2006The Chinese economy reminds me of the movie “Speed”, where Dennis Hopper wires a bus with explosives and sets them to blow if the bus goes slower than 50 miles per hour. The Chinese economy has 1.2 billion unsuspecting people on board. It could all blow if economic growth drops below its current pace of more than 8 percent. Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1157159210262786552006-09-01T18:03:00.000-07:002006-09-01T18:06:50.823-07:00Jos. A Bank Is a Patient JoeBy Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA August 31st, 2006 - The Motley Fool
Investing isn't for the faint of heart. A Foolish investor must be strong enough to change his or her mind when a stock's underlying facts change -- or hang on tight, even in the face of a share-price decline, when they don't. I wrote a very favorable article about Jos. A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB) about a month ago, and I wouldn't Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1156631340940092052006-08-26T15:23:00.000-07:002006-08-26T15:29:04.260-07:00Random Thoughts: Toll's Bias; Housing Market; Russian Oil ProductionAugust 25-26th, 2006 - Minyanville.com Toll's Bias
There was an interesting article in the NY Times on the housing market. But what really struck me is Robert Toll’s (CEO of Toll Brothers (TOL)) denial of what is taking place in the housing industry until recently: Here is a sample of his comments from a year ago: “We’ve got the supply, and the market has got the demand. So it’s a match made in Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1155934786371241072006-08-18T13:59:00.000-07:002006-08-18T19:41:53.650-07:00Random ThoughtsMinyanville - August 16th, 2006I'll pose these questions for readers:Let's say the scenario that I described in this article plays out, the Chinese economy slows down, its massive operational and financial leverages create deflationary pressure on the companies forcing them to lower prices in an attempt to stimulate sales growth, starting a price war which would in turn lead to even lower Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1155764367790918662006-08-16T14:32:00.000-07:002006-09-19T10:47:36.316-07:00Random ThoughtsI wrote these short comments on Minyanville.com between August 14-16.
It's what good managers do to win ball games
At MIM2 (Minyanville in the Mountains 2) Jeff Macke and I discussed how being a public company impacts management's decisions, where management may do things that are not necessarily good for the long run of the business to please the short-term, result hungry Wall Street.
This Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1155523261461997232006-08-13T19:36:00.000-07:002006-08-13T19:41:01.883-07:00Dividends on the Ride DownAugust 11, 2006 - The Motley Fool
By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA As I began analyzing amusement-park operator Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), it reminded me of a computer game that I used to play called Rollercoaster Tycoon, because I felt like I was on a roller coaster when debating whether to open a position in this company.
Cedar Fair is known as a pure-play, profitable, well-managed company that has Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1154885429232556122006-08-06T10:28:00.000-07:002006-08-06T10:30:29.550-07:00Fall in love again with a bellwether friendAugust 4th, 2006 - Financial Times
By Vitaliy Katsenelson
Published: August 4 2006 19:42 Last updated: August 4 2006 19:42
Love was in the air, birds were singing, price/earnings ratios were growing and the stock prices of large-cap, bellwether companies such as Microsoft, Wal-Mart and Johnson & Johnson were rising as if dotcom had become their middle name. Investors could not get enough of Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1154799639032259632006-08-05T10:38:00.000-07:002006-09-19T09:18:06.776-07:00Being Contrarian With Jos. A. BankAugust 3th, 2006 - Minyanville.com
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) is up close to 6% after reporting truly unbelievable sales numbers for July: same store sales were up 16% and total sales were up 28%. July's performance has validated my view on the stock that you are about to read.
What does it really mean “being contrarian?” Doing the opposite of what everybody else is doing, Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1153504100989281332006-07-21T10:48:00.000-07:002006-07-21T10:48:21.296-07:00Dell? Not YetJuly 14, 2006 - The Motley Fool
By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) is hitting multi-year lows and, at 16 times trailing earnings, is attracting value investors that have coveted the stock from afar for years. Some of this latest decline can be traced to the company's recent downward revision of earnings estimates. And this is precisely the noise that a contrarian investor looks to Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1151885668204640542006-07-02T17:14:00.000-07:002006-07-02T17:17:44.003-07:00Telecom New Zealand: Bull or Bear?Friday June 30, 1:14 pm ET By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
Every trade has a buyer and seller taking opposite sides. They often have different risk tolerances, time horizons, and beliefs about the direction of a stock. And before purchasing any stock, investors should build a good bull case that refutes the bear case. In that spirit, I'll spend the next few paragraphs making both a bullish and a Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1151072097830448542006-06-23T07:13:00.000-07:002006-06-23T07:17:15.150-07:00Minyanville's New BlogOne of the sites I contribute to, minyanville.com, offers great investment analysis and they have just launched their New and Improved Buzz and Banter, an exclusive resource for investors. It supplies the most current market insight and innovative idea generation to your desktop, with some useful new features. Recently they have created a blog, minyanville.blogspot.com, providing some of the bestVitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1147837706966887492006-05-16T20:45:00.000-07:002006-05-16T20:48:27.193-07:00Don’t be downbeat about Wal-MartDon’t be downbeat about Wal-Mart May 12 2006 - Financial Times
The greatest investment opportunities are seeded not by warm sunshine but by chilling rain. It has been freezing and pouring in Wal-Mart’s neck of the woods. To say Wal-Mart is not loved is a serious understatement. It has been convicted and fined $172m for refusing employees in California rightful overtime breaks, it has been Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12601997.post-1147406200637048422006-05-11T20:56:00.000-07:002006-05-11T20:56:41.276-07:00Government Goes Medieval on Telecom New Zealand
By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA May 5, 2006 - The Motley Fool
A political risk is present in shares of any government-regulated company, but it came to fruition for Telecom New Zealand (NYSE: NZT) when the New Zealand government unbundled the local loop. Unbundling a local loop is a fancy phrase for requiring an incumbent telecom provider to open its networks to competition at cost. But maybe, just Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10746004148771250548noreply@blogger.com1